According to Bryan Norcross’s update from his Facebook page, there is an increased potential for a tropical disturbance this weekend that will affect our coastal Georgia area.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE in the Gulf:
The National Hurricane Center has raised the probability of a tropical (or subtropical) depression or storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days to 70%. The distinction between tropical and subtropical is not relevant to the weather it causes. This doesn’t in any way change the weather forecast for South Florida, however.
On the satellite picture below, you can see where the low pressure center is located now – the L on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The upper winds are in blue. They are blowing the thunderstorms off to the east. Those winds combined with the dry air over the Gulf are creating an unfavorable environment for the system to organize over the next couple of days.
The NHC map with the red cone-looking area shows the zone where they think the system has the best chance to organize as it moves generally to the north. In fact, however, the odds are much higher when it gets to the northern Gulf over the weekend, when it’s clear of those strong winds.
The key map for South Florida, and a good part of the Southeast, is the rainfall forecast map from the National Weather Service. This covers the next 7 DAYS, so it’s not all forecast to come at once. Still, they are showing the possibility of 5-7 inches of rain over South Florida, which would be expected to cause some flooding.
The point is, no matter what form the system in the Gulf takes, we will be on the wet side of the circulation. The bottom line, plan for periods of heavy rain beginning late in the week, and especially over the Memorial Day weekend.
If we’re lucky, we’ll get some decent breaks in the rain. But we can’t sure. Currently the best chance for heavy rain appears to be Saturday night through Monday, though that could certainly change.