The favorability rating of the Republican Party has been at it’s highest since Trump took over the White House, according to a new poll.
A new Gallup Poll finds that the GOP’s favorability, at 45 percent, is higher than the Democrats, at 44 percent.
Gallup’s study says the uptick in the GOP’s support has a nine percent increase among the public since September of 2017. This is the highest rating the GOP has had since the Republicans gained the U.S. House of Representatives majority it still holds since the 2010 midterm elections.
In January 2011, Republicans had a 47 percent approval rating but it declined below 45 percent ever since. That suggests the GOP, since Trump won the White House, has surged to its highest approval rating in seven years.
Gallup’s Jim Norman wrote the following analysis in the survey:
The parity in Republicans’ and Democrats’ favorable ratings marks a change from what has generally been the case since Barack Obama’s election as president in November 2008. Republicans have usually been rated less positively than Democrats over this time, with the Republican Party’s favorability rating for the last decade averaging 39%, compared with the Democratic Party’s 44%. Only one other time in the last decade has the Republican Party had a significantly higher score than the Democratic Party. That one exception came in November 2014, immediately after elections that saw Republicans capture control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House, when 42% rated the GOP favorably and 36% the Democrats.
These results come just two months before the general election and the rise within the GOP approval ratings is why the GOP has exceeded the Democrats in overall approval.
Some recent polling has indicated the Democrats are not hitting targets needed in key battleground Congressional districts to take the majority. For example, in Maine’s second congressional district, Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-ME) is ahead of Democrat Jared Golden by a healthy five percent in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
In California’s 39th congressional district, Republican Young Kim leads Democrat Gil Cisneros–who Obama campaigned with recently despite the fact he has been credibly accused of sexual misconduct–by ten points in a recent Monmouth University survey.
Democrats are struggling in other districts, too, including Florida’s 26th congressional district, where Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) is polling ahead of Democrat challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
For the Democrats to take over in the House, they will need to have a net win of 24 sets they did not have before.
A portion of Gallop’s findings suggest the following:
“No matter how much or how little party favorability affects elections, the fact that Republicans are more likely to view their party favorably than a year ago can be considered a positive indicator for the party, particularly if a more positive image boosts Republican turnout.”